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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to GB 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 17 for 2 yards (57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model