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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 28 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DAL 19, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.63 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -1.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model