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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to GB 5, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-K.Nixon to GB 11 for 6 yards (57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model