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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(13:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model