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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DAL 28, Center-56-J.Coco. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 38 for 10 yards (6-D.Leavitt). PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at DAL 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model