4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to GB 33, Center-45-M.Overton. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 44 for 11 yards (29-C.Goodwin; 57-L.Gifford). FUMBLES (29-C.Goodwin), RECOVERED by DAL-84-S.McKeon at GB 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.34 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP