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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 4-D.Prescott right guard to DAL 42 for 1 yard (26-D.Savage).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.90 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model