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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to GB 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model