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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.18 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model