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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 22 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(:14) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model