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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 4-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model