Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(11:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 31, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-28-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.72 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model