Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(14:20) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model