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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to ATL 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-55-C.Littleton.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.91 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP