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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:46) 11-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to ARI 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 28 for 10 yards (97-M.Hoecht).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model