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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 28

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 15-T.Vizcaino 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model