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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:38) (Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson up the middle to LA 35 for 1 yard (99-J.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model