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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 14-A.Lee punts 46 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell ran ob at LA 26 for 11 yards (89-S.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model