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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 6

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 64-S.Harlow reported in as eligible. 12-C.McCoy scrambles right end ran ob at LA 4 for 2 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO +3.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.66 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model