Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 11-R.Dixon punts 25 yards to ARI 43, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-43-J.Gervase. PENALTY on ARI-21-T.Mullen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 43.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.19 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model