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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to MIN 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 11 for 1 yard (88-A.Rogers).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.98 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model