Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Washington Commanders 0

(13:31) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne to WAS 21 for 11 yards (85-D.Chisena).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.87 EP
59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model