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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 46

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model