Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 94

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 14-R.Wright punts 49 yards to WAS 45, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-D.Milne to MIN 44 for 11 yards (44-J.Metellus). PENALTY on WAS-37-R.Wildgoose, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.91 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.68 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model