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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:16) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model