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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 80

Washington Commanders 17 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to MIN 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 5-J.Reagor pushed ob at MIN 46 for 10 yards (47-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model