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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP