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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 59

Washington Commanders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to MIN 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.43 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model