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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to WAS 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model