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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 14

Miami Dolphins 35 – Chicago Bears 32

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Smythe.

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model