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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 35 – Chicago Bears 25

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Gesicki.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model