Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to LAC 27, Center-48-L.McCullough. 1-D.Carter to LAC 36 for 9 yards (53-N.Kwiatkoski, 28-M.Ford). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.36 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model