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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(:56) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model