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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model