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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-D.Carter to ATL 32 for 6 yards (26-I.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model