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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model