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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to ATL 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model