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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to LAC 31, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-28-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.32 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model