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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to LAC 24, Center-48-L.McCullough. 1-D.Carter to LAC 37 for 13 yards (25-T.Allgeier, 53-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model