Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor. PENALTY on CAR-27-M.Blair, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model