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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 42 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.87 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model