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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 52

Cincinnati Bengals 42 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to CAR 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model