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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 42

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to CIN 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 29 for 5 yards (40-B.Smith). PENALTY on CIN-80-Mi.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model