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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to CAR 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 12-S.Smith to CAR 28 for 12 yards (31-M.Thomas; 49-J.Bachie). PENALTY on CAR-24-C.Henderson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 21.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.23 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP