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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 7-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.09 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model