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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 45

Washington Commanders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to IND 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model