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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 48

Washington Commanders 7 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 10-C.Samuel pushed ob at IND 30 for 18 yards (23-K.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model