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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 63

Washington Commanders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to IND 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 15-K.Coutee.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model