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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 93

Washington Commanders 7 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 5-T.Way punts 65 yards to IND 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-K.Coutee to IND 38 for 10 yards (58-S.Toney).

The Three Options

GO -3.72 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 93, worth -5.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model