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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 21

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model